Zakarin dominates the Alps!

Russian Ilnur Zakarin won today's arduous mountain stage with a time nearly a minute faster than anyone else.  This is Zakarin's first Tour de France stage win.  Below is Zakarin's winning time and a comparison with our prediction.

• Stage 17:  4h 36' 33" (actual), 5h 00' 10" (prediction), 23' 37" slow (8.54% error)

What's funny for me watching a stage is that I don't root for our prediction unless at the end I think we are really close.  I wanted to see the elite tackle today's mountains and come in under five hours.  And did they ever!  Check out Zakarin's average speed below.

• Stage 17:  11.12 m/s (40.03 kph or 24.87 mph)

That speed is 2 kph faster than what race organisers had as their upper limit on the time schedule.  Incredible to average 40 kph today!  We aren't happy to be more than 8% off today, but we'll have plenty to study when the race is over.  Several determined cyclists clearly outputted more power today than we had in our model.  We'll have a clearer picture of elite cyclist power output after this Tour de France is over.

Tomorrow's Stage 18 is a 17-km (11-mi) mountain individual time trial.  Cyclists will be back in France for the uphill time trial.  They'll get a chance to sprint on the downhill finish, though.  Our prediction is given below.

• Stage 18:  29' 27" (prediction)

I definitely want to see cyclists coming in under half an hour tomorrow.