09 July 2011

Error cut in half for Stage 8!

Here are the results for Stage 8:

  • Stage 8:  4h 36' 46" (actual), 4h 47' 37" (prediction), 10' 51" slow (3.92% error)
After yesterday's crashes helped bump my error up to about 8%, today's stage-winning time came in at under 4% of my prediction.  There were enough points in the final 6.5 km to give a decent description of the end of the stage.

Stage 9 is really the first stage were the Tour de France website severely fails to describe the terrain.  Four major valleys are left out of the data.  Here is what I predict based solely on the Tour de France website:
  • Stage 9:  5h 5' 57" (prediction -- no extra points)
I hope to obtain reasonable estimates for the elevations of the four valleys.  Look for a better (I hope!) Stage 9 prediction later today.

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